Interstate networks of support and threat coevolve. The interstate relationships meanwhile shape and respond to intrastate conflict, as states have an interest in propping up allies and undermining rivals---a common dynamic manifested in proxy wars. A lens of international politics as the coevolution of networks of support, threat and civil war examines hypotheses regarding the characteristics of interstate "support groups'' that are associated with enhanced or degraded security using Stochastic Actor Oriented Models. The study finds confirmation for an argument that support groups characterized by high military capacity but low levels of interest congruence with the supported states are associated with a higher propensity for interstate threat and intrastate conflict. States with such support groups are prime targets of adversaries of their supporters and thus more likely to experience both direct and indirect armed aggression. The study also finds confirmation for an argument that support groups characterized by high military capacity and high levels of interest congruence with the supported states are associated with less propensity for interstate threat and intrastate conflict. The same types of support groups which deter interstate threats also contribute to intrastate peace. Deterrence of would-be interstate and intrastate adversaries depends on both the strength of the potential support and the common perception that robust support will be forthcoming.

Kyle Beardsley (Ph.D., UCSD, 2006) is Professor of Political Science at Duke University and a Visiting Fellow at ANU. He is co-director of the International Crisis Behavior data project, and the Deputy Director of the Triangle Institute of Security Studies (TISS). His research focuses on the quantitative study of international conflict and peace processes. He is particularly interested in questions related to the role of third parties in shaping conflict dynamics, the interdependence of networks of conflict and cooperation, the links between armed conflict and gender power imbalances, and the impact of nuclear weapons on international crisis behavior.