On 18 November 2022, ANCLAS joined the ANU Centre for China in the World, the Latin America Program of the Wilson Centre (Washington DC), Cefeidas (Buenos Aires) and Global Nexus (Washington DC-Mexico City) in a webinar to compare and contrast the experiences of Australia and Latin American countries in their evolving relationships with China. All speakers agreed that by any measure – political, economic and security - China’s influence was significant. However, the extent of influence, the points of inflection and the effect of such engagement varied between individual countries.

Ben Herscovitch (Research Fellow, ANU School of Regulation and Global Governance) traced the evolution of Australia’s bilateral relationship with China from the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1972 to the high point in 2014 when deepening economic relations were matched by a warming of political relations. This was reflected in the declaration of a comprehensive strategic partnership and the signature of a free trade agreement. The panorama changed after 2017-18, however, when concerns over security and human rights gained prominence leading to a deterioration in relations which have only recently begun somewhat to thaw.

Benjamin Gedan (Acting Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson International Centre) noted that whilst Latin American countries benefitted significantly from the exponential growth in trade with China as a result of the global commodities supercycle, its overall impact has been mixed. In some countries China is regarded as a “competitor” for market access. In others Chinese trade and investment has resulted in high indebtedness. And almost without exception China’s role is seen through the prism of relations with the United States. Most Latin American countries are keen to optimize relations with both powers without being forced to choose sides.

Juan Cruz Diaz (Managing Director, Cefeidas Group) referred more specifically to the case of Argentina. He noted that successive governments had taken a pragmatic view of the bilateral relationship with China. The perception was that the United States has turned its attention from Latin America to other regions, particularly after 9/11. China’s demand for food and commodities coincided with Argentina’s economic meltdown in 2001-2 and had contributed in part to its recovery. Argentina has since signed a comprehensive strategic agreement with China – but has at the same time been careful not to alienate the United States.

Ruben Olmos (Managing Director, Global Nexus) said the Mexico-China relationship had to be viewed in the context of Mexico’s relations with its North American partners the United States and Canada (which were the destination of around 85% of its exports). The strength of bilateral relations had also varied under successive Mexican governments. Although Mexico had benefitted from Chinese investment in infrastructure and communications projects, relations were affected by the inward-looking foreign policy of the current administration and the impact of the policy of “near shoring” of manufacturing capacity from China back to Mexico.

A full recording of the forum can be viewed here.